The Pacific Asia Travel Association (Pata) predicts that tourism will grow by close to 8 per cent throughout the region between 2006 and 2008, with stronger growth of 9 per cent in 2006.The marginally slower growth forecast in 2007 and 2008 does not indicate a dampening of tourism demand, but rather a stable growth pattern developing after a period of rapid recovery from terrorism, Sars and natural disasters over recent years.

Pata's research indicates that in many markets, recovery from the Sars outbreak was completed in 2004, but in some places recovery is extending through to 2006. Overall, the growth pattern remains variable with some destinations in parts of South Asia and Oceania still showing sluggish growth.

Changing airline capacity is particularly affecting the Pacific region and forecasts indicate changes in the relative strengths of several Pacific island markets.

South Asia is leading the region's tourism growth through to 2008 and this is primarily because of a significant increase in arrivals to India. However, the North American region is also recovering and stronger growth is expected in the US from 2006 to 2008 - much more than has been seen since 2001 - while north and Southeast Asia are both expected to record 8 per cent growth.

 Pata is currently holding its annual conference in Pattaya, with the theme: "Changing Lifestyles - New Opportunities". All sectors of the tourism industry in Asia and the Pacific are represented by 1,141 delegates and leaders.

Pata said its research had produced forecasts of very strong growth in outbound travel from the major Asia Pacific source markets. There has been a resurgence in outbound travel commensurate with the recovery in arrivals growth.

All the major outbound markets in the region, including Australia, China, Taiwan, India, Japan, South Korea, and the US are showing signs of significantly renewed outbound travel.

"China and India will become the biggest players, both inbound and domestic," said Pata's president and chief executive, Peter De Jong.

One of the key conference speakers, Ho Kwon Ping, executive chairman of the Banyan Tree Group, said three forces were driving growth in tourism: ageing baby-boomers, the rise of the urban middle class in China and India and "the fact that travel aspirations are becoming almost a human need".

"Accelerating this process is technology - both travel-specific technology, such as the introduction of newer and cheaper aircraft, and even seemingly unrelated technologies."

The convergence of Internet, telephone and television in a digital "triple play" and the increasing power of technology will continue to drive change in ways we cannot yet imagine, he said. On the other hand, travellers are also empowered with a plethora of choices and information and the tourist experience now begins long before people get on a plane.

John Koldowski, director of Pata's strategic intelligence centre, said that more than 330 million international visitors arrived in the Asia-Pacific region in 2005, the second consecutive year a new record has been reached.

Much of the growth is being fuelled by strong national economic performances in the region, deregulation in aviation, and the rise of low-cost carriers and special deals, many of them booked on the Internet.

Suchat Sritama

The Nation

Pattaya