A study by Mercer Human Resource Consulting found that 25 per cent of companies surveyed in Asia reported they had allocated budgets in preparation for a possible pandemic, compared with 12 per cent in Europe and 7 per cent in the US.

The World Bank has estimated a global economic impact of US$800 billion (Bt30.44 trillion) for a human-influenza pandemic.

To put this into perspective, the Sars crisis of 2003 cost the economies of Asia Pacific $40 billion and reduced air traffic in the region by 45 per cent, yet only 8,000 people were infected.

The survey found 58 per cent of respondents in Sars-affected countries - Canada, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, Singapore and Vietnam - had taken the lead in preparation and planning for a deadly flu epidemic.

Ryad Dhabi, avian-flu taskforce leader for Asia for Marsh, an international risk management firm, told The Nation by phone from Hong Kong that most companies in the region had a practice drill with the 2003 Sars epidemic that struck the region, killing nearly 800 people and severely hurting tourism and airline industries.

As a result probably the most prepared for a flu pandemic is the airline industry, Dhabi said.

"The industry plans include the grounding of planes and include in-flight procedures," he said. "That includes preparing special hand soaps, masks, disinfectants as well as quarantine procedures."

While most people think the re-circulated air passengers breath in an aeroplane cabin would spread the virus from a sick person to other passengers, captain Neil Jonasson, assistant director of safety, operations and infrastructure for the International Air Transport Association disputes that.

"You'd have more chance catching a flu on a bus than you would on an airplane," he said. "The air you breathe is circulated through biological HEPA [high-efficiency particulate air] filters which are standard on most planes."

About 75 per cent of all commercial aircraft use the filters, according to the US Federal Aviation Administration.

Peter Simpson, a risk manager with Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways, said there was not much airlines could do except some rudimentary measures, such as stocking up on masks. He said that during Sars, Cathay continued flying - even though it sometimes had just three passengers on an aircraft - lest it lose its traffic rights at certain airports.

Some companies have even gone so far as to stock up on Tamiflu, the only pharmaceutical known to have some effect on the virus, said Robin Armstrong, chief executive of Marsh PB in Bangkok. He said that Japan had the largest stockpile of Tamiflu in the world, but added that hoarding wouldn't work in all countries, because some governments discouraged the practice.

A study by Marsh found that few corporations had implemented risk-management plans for dealing with a pandemic and the insurance industry was limited in its ability to deal with the risk and help businesses recover.

In fact, as far as insurance is concerned, there would be very little coverage in standard policies, said Armstrong. And even business-interruption policies, which cover companies for losses incurred if their operations are halted, usually kick in only if there is actual physical damage to premises.

J Nils Wright

The Nation