The association forecast yesterday that the country's production of Vannamai and Black Tiger shrimp and the volume of exports would both fall 10 per cent from last year.

Export volume is expected to fall to 250,000 tonnes from 280,000 tonnes last year. However, total export value will increase by 20 per cent to Bt86 billion because of higher export prices.

Thailand's shrimp production will fall to 350,000 tonnes from 380,000 tonnes last year, according to the trade group.

Shrimp production slumped by 19 per cent to 68,000 tonnes in the first quarter this year from the same period in 2005 and is expected to fall by 25 per cent to 140,000 tonnes in the second quarter, according to Somsak Paneetatyasai, the association's president.

Tumbling production is largely due to poor weather in the South, where most shrimp production is based. The Fisheries Department earlier predicted a 10-per-cent drop in shrimp production because of the unusual climatic conditions.

Export volume fell 101,402 tonnes in the first quarter from 124,776 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. At the same time, sales of feed for baby shrimp and shrimp fell 16 per cent and 30 per cent, respectively.

World shrimp production is also expected to fall. Major producers and exporters including Brazil, Vietnam and Ecuador face lower production because rising oil prices have forced up farmers' costs, according to the association. Shrimp disease has also affected production.

Somsak said waning production has resulted in higher prices. Moreover, fears of bird flu has prompted consumers to focus more on seafood, which has pushed prices higher.

He said improving economies in importing countries such as Russia would also increase global demand for shrimp.

The Thai Shrimp Association's secretary-general Ekapoj Yodpinit said poor climatic conditions in the South, which is the country's main shrimp farming area, have slashed production by 10,000 tonnes.

Achara Pongvutitham

The Nation