But however one views caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's decision to discontinue his premiership, there seems to be a general consensus that the paramount Thai Rak Thai leader will be anything but a political bygone.

The political stakes for Thaksin are so high that he simply cannot choose to walk away even if he wants to. The threat of a possible investigation into his political misdeeds and alleged conflicts of interest is one of the major reasons why the caretaker prime minister cannot afford to wash his hand of politics. Besides, without his active political role, there is a strong possibility that his Thai Rak Thai Party will disintegrate.

It should not surprise anyone if Thaksin continues to pull the strings from behind the scenes. After all, Thai Rak Thai is far from being the broad-based political party Thaksin tries to portray. It's essentially Thaksin's personal political machine. He founded it, runs it with his top-down management style and uses its vast network to prop up his autocratic leadership.

That Thaksin will still be calling the shots in Thai Rak Thai even while he is in political hiatus is a certainty. The next prime minister, therefore, will be nothing more than a political puppet subject to the whims of the real power-holder. Working from behind the scenes, Thaksin will be spared the spotlight and cannot be held accountable.

None of the Thai Rak Thai figures mentioned so far as possible successors to Thaksin offer any inspiration. Their performance as members of the outgoing administration left a lot to be desired. It's obvious that for them everything was secondary to serving Thaksin's agenda.

Even Somkid Jatusripitak, the caretaker deputy prime minister and commerce minister and probably the most outstanding of all the potential candidates, is no less an unconvincing choice. Business circles were quick to give him the thumbs-up largely because they believe he has the least tainted record and that he would be more sympathetic to their wishes than the other potential candidates.

But let's not be fooled by appearances. Somkid has been one of Thaksin's most trusted lieutenants and most vocal spokesmen. In fact, Somkid is known to be the architect of many of Thaksin's political marketing gimmicks. And when the situation called for display of "political conscience" in the face of mounting charges of conflicts of interest and misuse of power against Thaksin, Somkid was as silent as anybody else in the government.

Thaksin will make sure that his successor will be operating strictly in his shadow and continuing the populist policies that have been the bedrock of Thai Rak Thai's appeal to the rural poor. It's almost unthinkable that Thaksin and the various factions in Thai Rak Thai will give whoever is chosen to lead the next government a free hand in appointing his Cabinet and pursuing independent polices.

So "Thaksinomics" will continue to flourish, with or without Thaksin officially at the helm. The conflict of interests, cronyism and corruption that were the hallmarks of the first two Thaksin administrations will not go away. The only difference is that Thaksin will no longer be a sitting target.

Thus the continuing campaign by the People's Alliance for Democracy, which was largely instrumental in forcing Thaksin to take a political break, to deny the legitimacy of the April 2 election and the Thai Rak Thai-dominated House of Representatives it produces is finding resonance among many people.

Thaksin's political vacation may help bring down the political temperature but it does not in any way address the allegations levelled against him - most importantly those related to his family's sale of their stake in Shin Corp to Temasek Holdings of Singapore, which triggered the ongoing political commotion.

Thaksin cannot simply pretend that by stepping aside politically he will be able to deny accountability for his alleged past misdeeds. Far from whitewashing Thaksin's political record, the just-concluded snap election is a testimony to his arrogance of power.

The overwhelming "no vote" has stripped Thaksin of legitimacy even to play the role of puppet master. And yet he continues to pretend that all is fine and that his Thai Rak Thai will continue to rule despite their rejection by vast sections of the society. Senator Chermsak Pinthong was right in warning that Thaksin's arrogance is pushing the country toward political strife that has the potential to explode into something similar to the Bloody May uprising of 1992.

The by-elections being called in the southern constituencies appear more like a political circus than a democratic exercise. Several candidates from little known political parties who were rejected in the April 2 general election have registered to run again with the sole intention of helping Thai Rak Thai candidates win without having to get the 20 per cent of the votes they would need if contesting alone.

But it will still be a one-horse race in six constituencies and there are strong doubts whether the Thai Rak Thai candidates can meet the 20-per-cent requirement. Without all 500 MPs elected by the 30-day deadline, the first sitting of the House of Representatives to elect the House speaker and prime minister promises to be a contentious legal issue.

A political backlash is inevitable if Thai Rak Thai ignores public sentiment and tries to exploit legal loopholes to have the House convene. More street protests are certainly in order if Thaksin tries to use the flawed electoral process to justify his party's mandate.

Far from being "a blow to democracy" as described by an editorial in "The Economist, the spontaneous and widespread anti-Thaksin demonstrations that eventually led to the phenomenal "no vote" against his Thai Rak Thai Party is in fact a sign of political maturity among urban Thais.

The fact that hundreds of thousands of people rallied peacefully for weeks against what they saw as a corrupt and autocratic leader and to demand a more transparent political system that is more publicly accountable speaks volumes about the level of their political consciousness.

Thepchai Yong

The Nation