"The rubber tree is suited to a humid environment and needs a farmer with special skills. Moreover, Asean countries, as well as China, the world's biggest rubber-importer, are encouraging their farmers to grow rubber to serve not only domestic demand but also to boost exports," said a high-ranking official at the department, who asked not to be named.

Years ago the office opposed a government policy to promote rubber production after its own study suggested the environment in the North was wrong for the rubber tree. The North's hills could become subject to landslides, and farmers might suffer from low yields due to their lack of experience, the official warned.

In addition, the national shortage of skilled rubber-farmers will further stifle efficiency, the civil servant said.

Following the government's policy and rising prices, northern farmers, particularly in Phayao, have cut down longan trees, which have traditionally dominated the area's farming culture, to grow rubber.

The rubber price to farmers is quoted at Bt73 a kilogram, a significant increase from the previous government's target price of Bt40. The price is an important factor in convincing farmers to shift to rubber production.

Major agriculture products, like rice, rubber and palm oil, are often used by politicians as a mechanism to gain votes during general elections.

The source stressed that Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and China had promoted rubber production.

In particular, China is aiming to reduce imports and boost exports, which will increase global supplies in the near future.

The source said the department did not expect the high rubber price to continue for the next seven years, the time it takes for a rubber tree to begin yielding latex.

"The production from those countries will increase global supplies," the official said, though increased Indian demand is an important factor in maintaining high prices.

Farmers in the North should learn more about farm management, particularly benefit sharing between farmer and labourer, which is 50:50 at harvest time, the source said, adding that labour shortages would be a key problem in the region because farmers with special rubber skills lived in the South and the Northeast, where the government had previously promoted rubber production.

Despite its being the country's main rubber-producing region, growers in the South themselves face labour shortages as labourers from the Northeast head home to grow rubber.

"We want farmers to think again before cutting down longan trees and planting rubber. They may not enjoy high prices and be forced to tolerate harder working conditions instead," the source said.

Achara Pongvutitham

The Nation