His temporary absence from Government House does not mean he has washed his hands of politics. Thaksin has retained the status of caretaker prime minister while appointing a deputy caretaker prime minister to take his place.

The country therefore has two caretaker prime ministers, one inactive but still in full control, while the other is in charge of government but merely as a puppet, trying to keep Thai Rak Thai in power.

The government is in limbo, a lame-duck entity unable to introduce major policy issues. It is just killing time until elections can supply 500 House members, which is certainly unattainable without some shady legal manoeuvring.

This is a sad state for Thailand. Thaksin refuses to relinquish power despite strong pressure on many fronts for fear that the entire Cabinet will have to go, opening a way for His Majesty the King to appoint an interim prime minister. That would lead to political reform and constitutional amendments to put the country on a new course, away from a certain ruinous future due to the corrosive effects of Thaksinomics during the past five years.

Thailand is not safe yet. Thaksin's refusal to resign has shut all avenues to regime change. He sees that there will be political difficulties in the months ahead, such as the inability of Thai Rak Thai to have a full House of 500 members. This means there is no way for the party to convene Parliament and pick a new prime minister.

Thaksin's decision to step aside was a perfect scheme to save his skin and stay away from all the troubles resulting from this expected political impasse. If his puppet caretaker prime minister and Cabinet cronies successfully survive all the adversity, then he can reclaim the premiership with the strong support of rural grass-roots voters.

The ongoing political uneasiness will remain unresolved as long as Thaksin continues to be a political master with immense power and money to spend. The Thai Rak Thai Party may be fractious, but the dissident factions are too afraid to walk away and face a political void with no chance of contesting elections due to constitutional restrictions.

Taking a holiday will not only allow Thaksin to have some peace of mind and, in his own words, regain the status of a human being after playing the role of a political animal for several years. The break allows him to take care of multibillion-baht assets, both those long stashed abroad and those newly garnered from the sale of Shin Corp stock for Bt73 billion, to form a huge family fortune.

What's more, there is no immediate risk of criminal investigations based on long-standing public accusations of massive corruption in government, abuse of power, deep-seated cronyism and conflict of interest. Their caretaker status enables Thaksin and his cronies to preserve power and prevent independent investigation into corruption and other wrongful practices in government. At the same time, they remain unrepentant over the attempt to sell off the financially solid Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand through privatisation, which would have created immense wealth for politicians in power.

The People's Alliance for Democracy, which can still draw tens of thousands of people to rallies, is determined to do away with Thaksinomics. The group wants Thaksin to leave politics for good or else, it says, the country risks a calamitous future.

Thaksin is enjoying himself, at least openly, in the company of golf buddies and cronies, ignoring the pressure. He is confident that no one can do anything to take power from him as long as he does not resign. Yet should he lose it, he has a strong chance of making a vigorous comeback with the mandate of grass-roots voters.

Like it or not, the country is not safe from Thaksin's grasp and his potential to lead us all to a tragic ending.

Sopon Onkgara