Foreign tourists are expected to spend Bt460 billion while in the country this year, up 14 per cent from last year. Despite the growth, the estimate is far from the government's forecast of 13.8 million tourists, who were expected to spend Bt486 billion.

Though tourist numbers, which dropped sharply in the first half of 2005 due mainly to the tsunami in December 2004, will gradually recover early this year, arrivals slowed down in March when political tensions started simmering.

"A number of foreign tourists have delayed travel to the country because of the political turmoil. Some decided to go to Vietnam instead," Kasikorn wrote in its report.

The centre, therefore, forecasted that the number of tourist arrivals in the first quarter would be 3.15 million, up 18 per cent from last year's lower-than-usual base.

The report pointed out that the number of tourist arrivals from Russia in the first quarter doubled from the same period last year, followed by those who travelled from East Europe, while the number of tourists from Germany, France and Scandinavian countries has been lower than last year.

Tourists from East Asia resumed their trips in the first three months of this year after a sharp drop in numbers during the same period last year.

In addition, tourists from the United States, South Asia, the Oceania region, the Middle East and Africa are travelling more frequently to Thailand.

The research centre expects slower tourism growth in the second quarter compared with the first. Though the political tensions are likely to ease, several lingering factors could erode growth in the second quarter.

Kasikorn Research Centre predicted 2.7 million tourist arrivals in the second quarter, a rise of 8 per cent from last year.