REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Politics of fear and hopelessness drive opposite camps

The thousands of grassroots supporters of caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in the Caravan of the Poor currently camped at Chatuchak Park have intrepidly called themselves "the democratic army", imitating the left-wing cliche of the 70s' "people's army".
They have been organised into miniature village set-ups - cells in modern jargon - with signs bearing the name of their province, to give the sense that they are fighting for their survival.
Whoever indoctrinated these supporters with such slogans and employed this mass psychology knew full well what they would be up against in Bangkok in the weeks and months ahead. They wanted to send a strong signal to society that this is the vanguard of democracy, real or imagined, created by Thaksin's own brand of populism and clientelism. They have been brainwashed into believing that the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), made up of multi-stakeholders, are not true lovers of democracy because they are only protecting their own interests and represent no one. They come and go to the rallies as they wish.
The pro-Thaksin camp, comprised of farmers and villagers from the country's poorest regions - the North and Northeast, are determined to keep whatever they have gained from five years of populist excess. To them, the health schemes, village funds and debt moratoriums are lifesavers. They obviously have no idea of the dire consequences of such mammoth spending by Thaksin and his cronies. Therefore, they will do whatever necessary to stop any force - even the so-called democratic force epitomised by the "coalition of the willing" of more than 100 civil society organisations - that will deprive them of these benefits.
To these rural supporters, Thaksin is the only saviour. They have been told by their village heads and provincial government officials that all the cash and loans they have enjoyed would disappear immediately if Thaksin was no longer prime minister. Worse, they have to pay back their growing debts. The threat worked so well that the ruling party, Thai Rak Thai, is perfecting the dark art of embedding this fear in larger segments of society. And teaching that only Thaksin can liberate them from such fear.
How can these supporters bring this about? With their votes, they are being egged on - it is in their voting right that they are equal to the rest of society. Amazingly, "one person, one vote" has become the new dictum in the rural areas under Thaksin's populist spell. Unwittingly, through Thaksin's desire to perpetuate his reign of power, if not terror, he has awoken a sleeping giant in the have-nots. Now they know that the only way to keep Thaksin in power is to go out and vote. They are willing to make their votes conditional on these benefits. It is a kind of political empowerment of the rural folks, even though it is under Thaksin's tutelage. What is needed in future is to break this new party patronage system.
What is interesting is the conspicuous absence of portraits of HM the King at Chatuchak Park. For a Thai, this is something incredible. Normally, in any public gathering it is customary to put up His Majesty's portrait as a symbol of reverence and righteousness. Obviously, those camped in the park for the past weeks represent a small part of the rural population. Nonetheless, it gives an inkling of what has transpired in their minds, which have been touched, and some would say changed, by Thaksinomics.
In stark contrast is the two-month-old civic disobedience by the PAD supporters that is now centred around Government House and other civic centers. Over the weekend, they jointly made an appeal for royal intervention through Article 7 of the people's Constitution of 1997. They waved yellow flags and wore headbands or T-shirts with the slogan "We fight for the King". Even the Democrat Party asked for a royal intervention.
It is the opposite of Chatuchak Park. For the anti-Thaksin protesters, it is the politics of hopelessness - the feeling of being in a cul-de-sac. Beyond any imagination, they have brought together so many different personalities and beliefs into the alliance, not to mention frequent antagonistic traits. But they put aside their differences and united under the PAD umbrella with one aim: to get rid of Thaksin. In their views, he is a maniacal, kleptocratic leader, a business CEO at heart. He even went to a motor show on Saturday when the nation is in crisis. Therefore, the only effective checks and balances mechanism is to ask the King to break the current impasse. They view Article 7 as a safety valve.
It is hard to predict what will happen next in the current stalemate in people's power in action, even over a few minutes. But two things are clear: Thai democracy will survive albeit tarnished but Thaksin will not. He will try few more tricks. But sooner rather than later, the embattled prime minister will be thrown into the dustbin of history. He has become an invalid in Thai politics after repeatedly saying he had done nothing wrong by finessing laws and engagements to suit his ambition and greed. Remember Thaksin used to say that democracy is a means, not an end. After the House dissolution last month, he has miraculously become of a preacher of democracy 24 hours a day.
What is interesting is the post-Thaksin scenario. Will it usher in a fresher, more participatory democracy? What effect will it have on the constitutional monarchy? Will it be a strengthened or weakened Thai democracy? The answers, which will be evident soon, depend on the manner and method in which the current crisis is solved.
Kavi Chongkittavorn
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