Both sides started out like Olympic diving competitors, except the cardinal rule in this contest is that whoever resurfaces first is the loser. After a month, both the pro-government and anti-Thaksin camps are exhausted, but neither has resurfaced. Both sides are still single-mindedly committed to victory, but they are not close enough under water to be able to see whether the other has already drowned. In the end, both may perish, and there will be no winner left alive and well in this high-stakes race.

This political impasse follows the caretaker premier's refusal to budge and his determination to push through the April 2 snap election regardless of negative consequences. In other words, he has further increased the risks facing this country as well as his own political future.

Assuming that the election goes ahead as scheduled on April 2, a victory for the Thai Rak Thai Party is a certainty given that it is essentially unopposed due to the boycott of the poll by all three former opposition parties. But there is a high probability that not all 500 House seats will be filled, which is necessary for the next House of Representatives to convene and choose a prime minister.

There are at least three major reasons that this could be the case.

First, when a Thai Rak Thai MP candidate for Samut Sakhon province was recently disqualified by the court, the Election Commission decided that the Thai Rak Thai and other parties could field new candidates for the constituency even though the law bars a political party from fielding candidates twice. Hence the EC's decision could lead to a constitutional dispute soon after the poll results.

Second, one of the Thai Rak Thai's party-list candidates entered the monkhood, thus becoming ineligible to stand for election and leaving the party with only 99 candidates for the 100 party-list seats. The other, small parties contesting the election are unlikely to win any party-list seats at all. A minimum of something like 1.5 million votes is needed to win one seat, which is probably not possible for any these little-known parties.

Third, most southern constituencies are strongholds of the former opposition Democrat Party, so it is highly likely that several or even dozens of candidates fielded by the Thai Rak Thai in these constituencies will not get the minimum 20 per cent of all eligible votes needed for a poll victory. In such an event there would have to be many by-elections to fill the vacant seats, and it is uncertain whether the EC could solve the problem within 30 days of the election, by which time the first meeting of the House is required to take place.

The Thai Rak Thai is already well aware of all these obstacles and has prepared the legal means to still push through the first House session and choose a prime minister.

The country may get a new premier, but questions of legality and legitimacy will likely grow louder. This is likely to take a toll on the economy as foreign and local investors wait to see what becomes of the political uncertainty. Domestic consumption and even the export sector could take a hit if this situation is prolonged.

The outlook for constitutional amendments will not be bright either, given that the civic and pro-democracy groups are unlikely to support supervision by the Thai Rak Thai of such a crucial process.

Nophakhun Limsamarnphun

 nop1122@yahoo.com