With the recent signal from Khunying Pojaman Shinawatra for the April 2 snap election to proceed unhindered, the caretaker Thaksin government has instructed officials at the Interior Ministry to use all their resources to push for a voter turnout of 75 per cent.

It sounds like a preparation for war, and the government apparatus has been given the message that the snap election must be held at all costs.

"It looks as if they are going to get this high voter turnout, which would reaffirm the leadership of the prime minister," said an official, who asked not to be named. "But what happens after the election is another matter."

In the February 2005 election, voter turnout reached almost 70 per cent from a total of about 40 million eligible voters. The Thai Rak Thai won a landslide with about 19 million votes.

The critical hurdle for Thaksin to clear is this Saturday, when the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) will hold another huge rally in front of Government House to try and oust the prime minister.

Sondhi Limthongkul, one of the leaders of the People's Alliance, has asked for the support of one million protesters to join the rally, which will culminate with another petition to His Majesty the King for a royally-appointed prime minister.

The PAD has given Thaksin several deadlines to step down, but the premier has refused each time.

Thaksin is managing every hour of the day cautiously, avoiding any possible mishaps. Saturday will mark the first day of the election for voters with early registration. Once voters cast their ballots, Thaksin is likely to feel a huge sense of relief as nothing more is likely to stand in the way of the April 2 poll, which will amount to a referendum on his leadership. Thaksin has refrained from attacking his political opponents in order to save energy and maintain his advantage. He cancelled political campaigns planned for yesterday and today.

"Imagine Thaksin as a boxer. He has scored big points for most of the rounds. What he needs to do now is to use his footwork and avoid a punch from his opponent. At the end of the final round he will declare victory. He does not want to risk a bout-by-bout fight against his opponents now," a source in the Thai Rak Thai Party said.

Thaksin has been relying on the campaign theme that he is playing by democratic rules. The main opposition parties, People's Alliance and other critics have been portrayed by his camp as people refusing to adhere to the 1997 Constitution.

Political analysts said the Thaksin camp believes support for the PAD will dry up, as it only has around 6,000 to 7,000 hardcore protesters. "The remainder are middle-class or entrepreneurs who come and go and who have to work or have businesses to look after. They can't stay at the rally site for long," said one political analyst.

"March is an ideal month for political rallies because it follows the harvest season. April will be a bad month for protesters because the election will be held on April 2. April 6 is Chakri Memorial Day. Then we have the Songkran Festival. The people will leave Bangkok for their hometown for 10 days, while Bangkok people will also go somewhere for a holiday."

Meanwhile, more than 10,000 supporters of the prime minister - mainly poor rural folk from the North and Northeast - have gathered in Chatuchak Park. They will be well supplied, with logistics support via the railway system. Newcomers can be brought in to replace those who wish to go home.

Vasana Puemlarp, the head of the Election Commission (EC), said yesterday there was no way the April 2 election would be postponed - despite the boycott and serious claims of fraud - unless Thaksin asks the King to delay it.

However, Vasana warned the election might not produce a new parliament, as the EC has already barred some 320 of the 941 candidates and the Supreme Court is still considering the fate of about 80 others.

"Thaksin is not worried about the electoral problems. He has good lawyers like Wissanu Krea-ngam and Pongthep Thepkanchana, who can come up with good reasons to open parliament to pick a new prime minister," a military strategist said.

"If there is a stalemate in the political process, then so be it. But the system will work its way out. Thaksin then might step down temporarily to pave the way for Somkid Jatusripitak to succeed him."

A recent research report by the Development Bank of Singapore said: "Political risks remain high, with uncertainty over whether Thaksin will survive the political stand-off. Violence could erupt and the imposition of a state of emergency cannot be ruled out.

"An election boycotted by the major opposition parties implies that the election result may not be credible. A weaker government appears the likely outcome in any case regardless of the April election results."