REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Anti-Thaksin unity makes for an interesting future

It was a "goose-bump" experience. On Friday night at the anti-Thaksin rally at Government House, Luang Vichit Vathakarn's nationalistic lyrics were sung in unison to long and rapturous applause.
This was followed immediately by HM the King's "Khaum fan an sung sud" or "Impossible Dream" and a series of songs for life, notably "Saengdao haeng sathra", written by Jit Phumsak, the icon of the left over the past three decades. When the demonstrators were asked whether they wanted a royally appointed prime minister and government, they shouted "yes" enthusiastically and followed with an eight-minute standing ovation waving miniature Thai flags. What we were witnessing here was a shifting paradigm of right, left and those in the middle to a common ground. Their convergence near the Royal Plaza was brought about by caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's political arrogance and populism. The phenomenon reflects huge a change in the public perception of movers and shakers in Thai politics. It is no longer confined to particular groups - such as intellectuals, businessmen, labourers, farmers, students and teachers - as in the past but rather a whole group of multi-stakeholders. The anti-Thaksin movement began as a demonstration to protect the revered institution of monarchy from a dictatorial leader imitating kingly ways. A few weeks later, towards the end of last year, the small group of a few thousand had increased and their rallies became bigger by the day. Starting January, various corruption charges levelled against Thaksin and his cronies have began to sink in. The scandal over the purchase of CTX baggage scanners for the new airport convinced Thaksin's erstwhile supporters in urban areas that he was corrupt and greedy. The Shin Corp-Temasak deal rubbed salt into the wound and showed that Thaksin would go to any lengths, including using his children, to finesse the controversial deal. By late January, the pro-monarchy banners moved slowly into the background as the numbers of middle class at the protest grew exponentially, as well professionals and university students. Their concern over Thaksin's conflicts of interest, legitimacy and moral authority intensified and quickly turned into rallying points for the coalition of more than 100 civil society organisations, the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD). In the past week, it was clear at Government House that the glue binding this coalition of the willing is the fear that Thaksin would rob them of the hard-won democratic gains of three decades. Whatever the implications, the movement has achieved something extraordinary, whether Thaksin steps down or not. This kind of commonality and unity of purpose must be tapped and applied more diversely. It would not be a surprise if the anti-Thaksin rallies morph into smaller but more focused ones aimed at bringing him to justice. Several questions have arisen. Is this a marriage of convenience, or is it a paradigm shift forced by the vulgarity of Thaksin's populist politics? Will this mass movement lay the foundation of new participatory democracy in Thailand? It is hard to predict what will transpire in a post-Thaksin era but two issues stand out. The new power-holders - whoever they are and whatever their mandate - will have to deal with political reform, including constitutional amendments, and Thaksin's future. The former goal is easier as the proposed changes are succinct, such as the requirements to be MP candidates and other political reform, and achievable within a fixed and short timeframe. The latter issue will be far more complex and time-consuming as it involves legal proceedings. It will also reveal the nature of Thai society and the sustainability of the new-found spirit of PAD's multi-stakeholderism. There will be two key issues related to Thaksin's immediate future: how to deal with his gargantuan wealth and whether to sue him for his crimes against humanity to give justice to families that suffered under him. In the foreseeable future, continued debate on Thaksin's folly and madness will strengthen, if not prolong, the coalition of willing despite contradictions among various interest groups and civil organisations. Thaksin's political decline, despite his political marketing and fanfare, has already begun and will become more visible. Recent unpublicised decision by the Privy Council to replace Thaksin with council president Gen Prem Tinsulanonda as the chairman of the organising committee to commemorate the world's longest reign, is considered the last nail in the coffin. In any event, the commemoration could be called off if the political situation remains unstable. A total of 28 countries have been invited to attend the celebration on June 9 and 14 have confirmed that their heads of state and spouses will attend. If the pattern of ad-hoc politics in the past three decades is any barometer, a special committee will be set up to examine Thaksin's wealth. When former prime minister Chatichai Choonhavan was toppled in a coup in February 1991, his wealth along with that of key Cabinet members was frozen immediately pending investigation of graft and malfeasance charges. Beyond losing his fortune, the worst-case scenario for Thaksin would be to be put on trial on charges of crimes against humanity related to his role in southern Thailand, especially at Tak Bai. The extent of his role in the operation on October 25, 2004 that led to the deaths of 85 people should be investigated fully. Witnesses, including those who used to serve Thaksin, have expressed willingness to testify and tell the truth. Muslim lawyer Somchai Neelaphaijit's disappearance, whatever the outcome of ongoing investigations, will also come back to haunt Thaksin. These two issues could be internationalised further. Thailand signed a statute on the International Criminal Court of Justice in 2000 but did not ratify it last year as pledged. Violations of human rights, including disappearances, were rampant during Thaksin's five-year tenure. With a new government in place, the ICC treaty will certainly be ratified. Who knows, Thailand's richest man could be the region's first leader to be tried in an international court.
Kavi Chongkittavorn
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