"Thaksin has fled to Singapore."

"Thaksin is prepared to step down and will appoint Chidchai [Vanasatidya, deputy PM] as his replacement."

"A close aide of Thaksin from his Class 10 will be replaced by Army chief General Sonthi [Boonyarat-kalin] to support Thaksin after declaring a state of emergency."

Almost every hour a fresh rumour springs up from nowhere and spreads like wildfire. A leading democracy activist says political tension is now being driven by hearsay, making it hard for the public to distinguish between fact and fiction.

The Mental Health Department on Thursday issued a warning about the emergence of what it called "political stress syndrome", a reaction to information overload.

Many scholars of rumours and their function in society told The Nation there was no need for the public to worry about what was true or false since rumours faded away anyway when there was a change in the situation or the subject of talk.

They also said it was usually a waste of time to try and identify the source of a rumour.

English dictionaries define "rumour" as "hearsay information", "gossip", "mix of truth and untruth going around by word of mouth", "general talk" and talk "not based upon definite knowledge".

"Listen to them as a series of tales, not ordinary folktales but ones with a political hidden agenda that you can enjoy," noted historian Charnvit Kasetsiri said. From a historical perspective, rumours have been a part of politics in Thai culture since before the Ayutthaya era, he said.

Rumours themselves cannot have any impact on individuals or the community, said Pornchai Trakulwaranond, a political anthropologist at Thammasat University, and their effect depends on the psychological condition of the recipient.

"A rumour will not work or influence you unless it's about an issue that you're sensitive to. If you now want to oust [Prime Minister] Thaksin [Shinawatra], any piece of news related to Thaksin will make an impression on you, and you'll accept the message, interpret it and transmit it to another person immediately," he said.

Pornchai suggests people who don't want to be confused by waves of speculation take themselves off centre stage, which has been taken over by rumour-mongering. "Close your radar and your ears," he said.

The Mental Health Department's warning over political-stress syndrome says people should pay less attention to politics and relax.

Suriyasai Katasila, spokesman for the People's Alliance for Democracy, which has been staging the daily mass protest rallies, said hearsay gave him headaches. "The easiest way to manage rumours is to ignore them. If we talk about them, whether to deny or accentuate them, we help spread them," he said.

Boonrak Boonyaketmala, a communication-arts scholar, wonders if some rumours originated in the anti-Thaksin movement.

"They could be used as a tool to increase the power of the PAD by showing that it is strong enough to shake Thaksin's power," he said.

Unlike other sciences that adopt the Western concept of rumour as a "weapon of the weak" to challenge and destroy the powers that be, anthropology looks at hearsay as an indicator of the condition of the country when its ruler loses control, he said. "If Thaksin still had political hegemony, the rumours would not develop," he said.

Although among the antonyms of "rumour" in dictionaries are "fact", "truth" and "evidence", rumours in Thai society tend to be true.

Historian Charnvit said rumours normally arose when people were not satisfied with the information transmitted through official channels. Many rumours in Thai society are about taboo issues that would never be picked up and passed on by official media, he said, and historically rumours have acted as "whispered chronicles".

Pornchai had another theory to explain the political dilemma.

"Rumours about Khun Thaksin tend to hit the mark since they're always the opposite of what he says, and Thaksin has proved that he never does what he says but what rumours say. He said he would not betray the MPs by dissolving the House, but it was guessed he would, and he did exactly that," the anthropologist said.

However, there's one rumour about Thaksin that has been going around for months and has not yet come true: "Thaksin has fled to Singapore".

Pennapa Hongthong

The Nation