Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra tends to an elephant at a village in Surin during his tour of the northeastern provinces yesterday.

Krungthep has fallen to riot and anarchy since February 24 forcing Chao Phraya Shinawatra to leave the capital in a hurry.

The capital is now in a state of lawlessness as Phaya Sondhi, Maha Chamlong, Khoon Somkiat, Thao Somsak and Oakya Phiphop take over. They had been camping out at Thung Phramen (Sanam Luang) with more than 100,000 conspirators over the past weeks before successfully laying siege to Government House. The conspirators come from all walks of life - engineers, computer analysts, doctors, nurses, entrepreneurs, students, merchants and traders.

The gods have taken flight from Krungthep. Bad omens presently manifest themselves in the shape of heavy tropical storms, foreshadowed by the bird plague, Sars, earthquakes, the tsunami, flood, drought in the Northeast and East. And in the South, the land has turned into fire.

Chao Phraya Shinawatra can no longer return to his Chan Songla Palace on the Thonburi side of Krungthep. He has sent off his family, which flew first-class to England. He is planning to buy a castle there.

He has lost the capital (sia krung). It all went back to his mistake in signing the Shin Corp Treaty with Singapore. This has amounted to turning over all national concessions to Singapore. The general populace has been up in arms. He could not have believed that the Shin Corp Treaty would have led to the uprising that cost him the capital.

Before leaving Krungthep in a hurry, Chao Phraya Shinawatra held a last farewell meeting with his grass-roots supporters on March 3 at Thung Phramen. There, amid the cheers and red roses, he declared that he would only leave the capital for a while, until the situation calmed down. Tears were brimming in his eyes. He would come back to win their hearts and minds. He loved them all dearly.

The first instinct of Chao Phraya Shinawatra was to head North. He told his entourage and troops to destroy all the rice pots before leaving the capital. If they could not reclaim the capital, they would never eat again. Chao Phraya Shinawatra travelled tirelessly with his entourage and troops days and nights before reaching his native town of San Kamphaeng, Chiang Mai. There, he would pick up loot along the way and mobilise further support.

His strategy, as devised by Khoon Chidchob, the Governor of Buri Ram, is to rebuild support from the vassal states across Siamkok. If he can mobilise at least 19 million people from the vassal states, he could return to Krungthep as a victor after April 2. This would be a referendum on his leadership. While the capital is in chaos, the vassal towns and cities have warmly embraced Chao Phraya Shinawatra. They like his populist policies.

But his campaign trail has been quite treacherous. Chao Phraya Shinawatra would also like to test support among his key allies. Any sign of betrayal would be dealt with decisively. After Chiang Mai, he went to Khon Kaen, where Phra Adisorn entertained him with his kaen (Isaan bamboo flute). Then he went to Khorat. Thao Suvat has been a reluctant ally, and Chao Phraya Shinawatra has never trusted him. Only Khlong Dan has kept Thao Suvat in check.

Then he and his troops went west to see Khoon Prapat. King Banharn of Suphanburi was mad. Khoon Prapat had been living well under his wing, but Chao Phraya Shinawatra was trying to drive a wedge between them.

King Banharn had already torn up the peace treaty with Chao Phraya Shinawatra by re-aligning his kingdom with the Sri Vichai Kingdom ruled over by Lor Yai Abhisit. Ironically, Lor Yai Abhisit has no way to identify himself with the great civilisation of Sri Vichai of the South, because he was born and raised in Krungthep. Another key ally in this tripartite arrangement was General Sanan of Phichit, the Land of Crocodiles. Their boycott of the April 2 national referendum has further undermined Chao Phraya Shinawatra's attempt to reclaim Krungthep.

Unperturbed by the inconvenience of his trip to Suphanburi, Chao Phraya Shinawatra headed east to Prachin Buri. Everywhere he went, he got kisses and red roses. But at nearby Sa Kaew, Chao Phraya Shinawatra's strength was put to the test. Sa Kaew belongs to King Thienthong, who used to support Chao Phraya Shinawatra in his quest for Krungthep. But their relationship has soured to the point of no return. While Chao Phraya Shinawatra was on the campaign trail, a supporter of King Thienthong threw a bottle of Singha water on his Mercedes.

In Chanthaburi, Trad and Chon Buri, Chao Phraya Shinawatra got extra security for his tireless campaign to win votes. Everywhere he went, he promised free medical care, free loans, new water supplies and new jobs. What would become of Siamkok without Chao Phraya Shinawatra?

While in Ubol Ratchathani, Chao Phraya Shinawatra assigned General Chidchai to be caretaker of the capital. They talked it out over the AIS mobile phone network, now owned by Temasek of Singapore - the strategy was to undermine the conspirators by tiring them out. Heat would be the chief enemy of those who have vowed to camp in front of the Government House until Chao Phraya Shinawatra enters the monkhood for good.

In Sisaket yesterday, Chao Phraya Shinawatra took a ride on an elephant's back, with Khoon Chidchob, following closely on the elephant's heels. This would be the best time for him to win favour from Chao Phraya Shinawatra, who appeared to have the ear for Nang Nidnoi and Mo Ming. Khoon Chidchob would like to offer Buri Ram, his small feudal state, as the new capital or kingdom for Chao Phraya Shinawatra. If Krungthep does not accept Chao Phraya Shinawatra, Buri Ram would become the new capital of Siamkok.

On the night of March 16, when the conspirators go to sleep, Chao Phraya Shinawatra plans to return quietly to his Chan Songla Palace. He has been missing his home and family so much. Somehow, he could still remember the lyrics of Frank Sinatra's "My Way", which he sang at a karaoke lounge in Khon Kaen: "And now, the end is near ..."

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation