For the past month the impasse has created an aura of uncertainty, thus eroding business, investor and consumer confidence in the Thai economy. As a result of the current political situation, some major business, investment and consumption decisions have been postponed, awaiting a clearer outlook of the political scene.

There are broadly two scenarios to be considered in making an informed guess as to the resolution of the current impasse.

First, it remains uncertain whether the April 2 general election will actually take place as scheduled. By boycotting the polls, the three former opposition parties - Democrat, Chat Thai and Mahachon - dealt a severe blow to the ruling Thai Rak Thai party of caretaker premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who has been struggling to return to power in a rather desperate manner.

Even if Thaksin triumphed in the snap poll, the results would never be widely accepted given the lack of participation by the main opposition parties. The caretaker premier has announced that if re-elected he would run the country for a year and oversee constitutional amendments after which he would dissolve the House again for another early election based on the amended charter.

Taken at face value, the plan doesn't seem too bad. But the reality is likely to be far more complicated and troublesome for the poll winner. Some political pundits believe that the road ahead for the new House and a Thaksin

III administration, if there is one,

will be full of potholes and booby traps.

For instance, Thai Rak Thai is essentially contesting the election alone since all the other parties fielding candidates are virtually "insignificant" politically.

With the exception of Prachakorn Thai, these parties are all brand-new and previously unheard of, fielding just a small number of candidates for the 500-seat House.

Given the essentially one-party contest, it remains uncertain whether the House would be able to convene at all since all 500 seats - 400 constituency and 100 party-list - need to be filled before it can elect the prime minister. In the event that Thai Rak Thai and the minor parties managed to convene the House and elect a new premier, the next question would be how long the new administration could weather the unrelenting political storm.

With virtually no significant opposition in the 500-seat House, the new government might not last more than a few months. The legitimacy of the election would be the most serious issue confronting the new administration and anti-government protests would likely ensue.

In this scenario, the political uncertainty besetting the business and investor community, as well as consumers, would be around for at least six months to a year. The negative consequences on the export sector and capital flows would likely be significant. Foreign buyers would have less confidence in Thai suppliers' ability to fill orders on time and might consider other countries, while potential foreign investors for both foreign direct investment and portfolio investment might consider shifting their money elsewhere, given the political uncertainty and eroding confidence in the Thai economy.

The other likely scenario for a resolution to the current political conflict is that there will be no election on April 2. This means the caretaker premier will step down ahead of the polls and there will be a royally appointed interim government to amend the Constitution, after which the next general election will take place.

However, it is not yet possible to estimate the timeline for this scenario - it could be less than six months or more than a year.

Nophakhun Limsamarnphun