The bomb exploded while the conflict between Thaksin and his opponents is peaking. Anti-Thaksin groups have turned their backs on calls for reconciliation or compromise, while Thaksin insists on running his campaign to return as prime minister after April 2.

The anti-Thaksin alliance is doing everything it can to prevent an election on April 2. With three opposition parties boycotting the poll, it is expected to result in a landslide for Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai Party and his return as the prime minister for another term.

Many of his opponents would be pleased to see a royally appointed prime minister and a new Cabinet to replace the Thai Rak Thai government.

If someone or some group opposed to Thaksin is behind yesterday's bombing, it could be an attempt to "legitimise" the drive to oust Thaksin by showing that the current situation is beyond his caretaker government's control.

Yesterday's explosion was the fifth "political bombing" since media firebrand Sondhi Limthongkul launched his anti-Thaksin campaign in September.

The blast gives the anti-Thaksin camp more reason to claim that the situation is worsening and that the country will fall into chaos if Thaksin stays on.

One theory is that the explosion was linked to an attempt

to get rid of Thaksin by senior military officers who would see their status decline after the next military reshuffle in October.

Senior military officers who are Thaksin's military-academy classmates are seen as being in line for promotions to the Army's top posts.

The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) plans to stage its biggest mass rally on Monday and move to Government House to pressure Thaksin to step down.

Prominent figures, scholars and students have petitioned His Majesty the King to replace Thaksin with a royally appointed premier.

Yesterday's bombing could hand Thaksin an excuse to enforce a State of Emergency decree, which would give him full authority to use any means to crack down on any movement that threatens his power.

He could order the military to end the demonstrations or arrest key opponents like Sondhi or Chamlong Srimuang.

He could order to close any newspapers or television stations labelled "enemies of the state" for reports that threaten national security.

He would be equipped with full authority to overcome any challenges to his power.

The explosion at Prem's residence is the second challenge to this chief adviser to HM the King.

Former Bangkok governor Samak Sundaravej blasted Prem, accusing him of siding with the anti-Thaksin alliance in a speech promoting HM the King's administrative directives.

The government is allegedly backing Samak to stifle Prem.

The incident followed by one day, an urgent meeting of Privy councillors that Prem chaired.

It is believed the meeting discussed a plan to end the current crisis.

The blast also occurred just four days before the PAD plans to deliver Thaksin an "ultimatum" with its "final mass rally" to force him down.

Political Desk

The Nation