"An impasse can lead to violence," Chaiwat said. "It's dangerous when people think society no longer has an option. For people who love Thaksin, can they think of him in other roles such as Parliament president?

"Pressing him to completely stay way from politics may sound too defeating [for Thaksin and his supporters]. The call [from his critics] for his 'leave of absence' could be interpreted as him not coming back as prime minister after the election."

Chaiwat was among academic heavyweights who spoke at the Nation Group's roundtable on "Breaking the Impasse" yesterday. Other speakers were Dr Ammar Siamwalla, senior economist from Thailand Development Research Institute; Chulalongkorn Univer-sity economics lecturer Dr Pasuk Pongpaichit; Dr Gothom Areeya, chairman of the Social and Economic Development Advisory Council; political scientist Dr Anek Laothamatas; and Senator Thongbai Thongpao.

Most speakers predicted Thaksin might be able to cling on to power for a little while because of support from the rural poor and working class - or between six months to a year, according to Ammar. But the premier has a tough road ahead.

Attacks from the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and other anti-Thaksin groups that the premier had lost legitimacy to rule because of his moral deficiency, albeit justifiable, was not enough to eject the premier from office as long as he still played by constitutional rules, some speakers said.

Thongbai said morality in politics was not a dominant discourse in society right now.

"That's why the opposition parties will have a hard time justifying their boycott of the election to their constituents, that they are not participating in the election Thaksin set up to whitewash himself," the senator said.

Ammar, Pasuk, Gothom and Thongbai shared the opinion that support from grassroots people was the PM's strength. But without support from key members of the business sector, the anti-Thaksin movement may not get enough momentum to oust the premier, Pasuk stressed.

However, Ammar said business people would not jump ship unless they were certain it was sinking.

"Under the frame of the Constitution, [the lack of] morality is not as powerful as breaking the law," said Pasuk. "Unlike military dictators in the past, Thaksin is supported by his electorate. He still has room to struggle under democratic/parliamentary rules although deep in his heart he may not appreciate democracy. He's only smart enough to ride on it to power and use it to defend himself."

Ammar said Thaksin's populist policies under the Thai Rak Thai banner would still win the hearts and minds of rural people and the urban poor, but the money was drying up.

"Thaksin is the most growth oriented of all prime ministers," the senior economist said. "But his ability to deliver [to his constituencies] is being reduced. Now with 4.5 per cent [economic] growth, which was surpassed even by the Philippines, he will have a difficult time meeting his [political] promises. Most of the mega-projects won't give much return [in the short term].

"But again, it will take time for people to realise that he is becoming like other politicians who made empty promises. If he still plays by the [democratic] rules, I think we will be able to stay for another six months to a year," Ammar said.

Anek and Gothom agreed that although Thaksin was using every means to survive in power for the time being, he was driving up a dead-end street. Anek predict that after the election, his Thai Rak Thai Party, with 500 MPs or close to it, would take control, amid public mistrust, of both the administrative and legislative institutions.

"That is a political situation we have never been in," Anek said. "Thai democracy has come a long way. People won't tolerate old-style politics … He will face opposition from day one back in power. His government will have no future."

Anek disputed the assertion that support from grassroots people would keep Thaksin in power. The political scientist invented the "tale of two cities" theory over a decade ago that politicians got elected by vote buying from ill-informed rural poor to form governments - only to be tossed out by the educated urban middle class. He insisted that his theory was reinforced by the situation today.

"The anti-Thaksin movement has sprung up everywhere, not only in Bangkok, but also in other provinces. The rural poor are not the deciding factor for the survival of the government now. They are only important during the election time. Even Thaksin if is ousted, the poor would not complain because politics for them is not about loyalty to any particular politician - all they want is a better quality of life."

Ammar asked the forum to think of what option Thaksin might have to survive this political crisis. Gothom said Thaksin should listen more to create true friends who dare tell him the truth. Anek said Thaksin could come back to amend the Constitution and dissolve Parliament so that the opposition could get back into the game.

Nantiya Tangwisutijit

The Nation