Thaksin will not find it easy to survive, even after the election, because the anti-Thaksin camp will not abandon its goal of removing him from politics. It's possible Sudarat will be picked as his successor in a crisis.

Her ranking of number 3 on the list is higher than other close Thaksin aides. In listing economic czar Somkid Jatusripitak down at number 4, Thaksin is obviously showing caution about Somkid overshadowing him, so the chances of Somkid stepping into Thaksin's shoes are slim.

Sudarat is known as one of Thaksin's most trusted aides. She has never abandoned the ship in Thaksin's hours of peril and was chosen to coordinate a deal with the opposition parties over amendments to the Constitution and the election boycott.

She has worked with Thaksin since they were together in the Palang Dharma Party and was co-founder of Thai Rak Thai.

Sudarat is very conscious of maintaining a good public image. She has thus held key ministerial appointments in Thaksin's administrations.

Number 2 on the list, under Thaksin, is Suriya Jungrungreangkit, Thai Rak Thai's secretary general. He is not seen as a leadership candidate because he still bears the scars of the CTX scanner scandal.

Moreover, Thaksin realises that Suriya's Wang Nam Yom faction, which had more than 100 MPs, is too big to control.

Other people on the list are not in consideration as they will serve only as members of parliament.

For the 2005 election, Thaksin prepared the list as if he expected to complete his four years in office. Political accidents were not considered. He had three lists in hand: party list MP candidates, ministerial candidates and constitutional MP candidates.

This time, the top 20 candidates on the Thai Rak Thai Party list are all key people. Most of them are ministers, and most are leaders of factions within the party. For example, the Wang Nam Yom faction leaders are number 2 Suriya and number 13 Somsak Thepsuthin. The Lam Ta Kong faction leader is number 6 Suwat Liptapanlop.

Thaksin's preparation of the candidate list shows two main reasons behind his decisions.

First, he might intend to form a virtually new cabinet with most of its ministers being outsiders, in order to restore his image and escape from the political crisis. Some prominent figures might be on his list of ministerial candidates.

In this case Thaksin might appoint a few candidates from the party list at least four as ministers. They might be Thaksin himself, Suriya, Sudarat, and Somkid. The remaining seats would be reserved for outsiders.

Second, Thaksin might need to have as many of his party MPs in the House as possible. If any party list MP is appointed a minister, he or she will lose his or her MP status and the party will replace them with candidates lower down the list.

But since Thai Rak Thai is expected to win all 100 party list MP positions after the opposition parties boycott the election, it will be left with no MPs on the list to replace those who are appointed as ministers. The greater the number of party list MPs in the Cabinet the fewer there will be in the House.

Sudarat might receive the reins of power after the election if pressure is still mounting on Thaksin to quit. Anything can happen in politics.

If she does step into the leader's shoes, Sudarat will join a select group of Asian women leaders, including former Philippines President Corazon Aquino and former Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri, both of whom came to power by accident and neither of whom held the job for long.

Somroutai Sapsomboon,

Jintana Panyaarvudh

The Nation