Amid the confusion and uncertainty over the hour-to-hour contortions in national politics, nobody can say how the leadership crisis will end.

The tension is rising relentlessly with no side in the dispute willing to take a step back.

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has defied all calls for his resignation while the People's Alliance for Democracy has vowed to stage another mass rally on Sunday to pressure him into leaving the national political scene.

The three opposition parties - Democrat, Chat Thai and Mahachon - are boycotting the April 2 election. Some military officers are suspected to be plotting a coup d'etat. Some people want His Majesty the King to intervene and replace Thaksin and his Cabinet with "his own prime minister and ministers".

With the crisis believed to be close to boiling point, several scenarios have been proposed for the near future.

Thaksin Shinawatra quitting as caretaker PM and appointing one of his deputies to take over is considered by political pundits as one way to break the stalemate.

Under this view, Thaksin would promise not to run for the House, which would convince his opponents that the Constitution will indeed be amended in the first House session after the poll. The three opposition parties would then be expected to change their tune and return to the election stage. Thaksin could return in the next poll to lead his Thai Rak Thai Party's campaign after the charter is rectified and the House dissolved to put the new rules into effect.

Under another scenario, Thaksin could withdraw to make way for a "royally selected premier and ministers", which would be an acceptable move among the public, the Army and politicians, as they have strong faith in His Majesty. This royal cabinet would take charge of the national administration and host the rewriting of the Constitution. The April 2 poll would be postponed until after the redrafting process is completed. Then Thaksin could come back to lead his party in the ensuing election.

If, however,, Thaksin steps down but insists on running in the election, the People's Alliance for Democracy would object as he would still be involved in politics, in a practical sense.

The alliance sees Thaksin as the heart of all the ongoing troubles, from abuse of power to corruption. It wants Thaksin to quit forever with no conditions, and to get rid off his legacy.

In the worst case, Thaksin could fight back and take the stage at Sanam Luang tomorrow in front of hundreds of thousands of loyal supporters from provinces all over the country.

He would attack his opponents for their "groundless" allegations against his family and party while maintaining that he will lead his party's return to power.

In this depiction, with his supporters furious about the anti-Thaksin movement, the sense of hatred could create a touch-and-go situation, with a danger of it developing into direct confrontation between the two camps.

Weerayut Chokchaimadon

The Nation