The role of the military has diminished since then, but it has never really abandoned politics because it has managed to cling on to a public image as the country's caretaker.

The military is not in confrontation with civil society, as it was in 1992. Yet, people still talk about, or even seek, a military role in shaking and shaping political direction when the Kingdom is in deadlock.

Media tycoon Sondhi Limthongkul, in his anti-Thaksin rally at the Royal Plaza on February 4, sought military support by leading about 2,000 people to meet Army Chief General Sonthi Boonya-ratglin at Army headquarters. The tycoon then claimed he had obtained the full support of the Army - a claim General Sonthi later rejected by saying he felt obliged to meet the marchers to ease the tension, even though it was late at night.

The next day, Premier Thaksin Shinawatra rushed to call a friendly game of golf with the top brass of the three armed forces and the police chief to illustrate that the military was still with him, despite rumours of a possible military coup d'etat.

Again on Tuesday, Thaksin gathered the brass for lunch, including Sonthi, Supreme Commander Ruangroj Mahasaranond, Admiral Sathiraphan Keyanond, Air Chief Marshall Chalit Pukpasuk and Police chief Kovit Wattana, after Sondhi and the People's Alliance for Democracy held a huge rally on Sunday, and on Monday vowed it would happen again this Sunday. The generals dismissed rumours of a coup and rejected a report that they'd suggested Thaksin should resign.

There are many reasons why there's always a strong whiff of coup d'etat at the anti-Thaksin demonstrations.

First, some elements among the protestors seem keen to open the door for the military. Sondhi has sought assistance from Privy Council chairman Prem Tinasulanonda, who has close connections with the armed forces, to force Thaksin to step down.

Second, history tells us that the military has used chaotic mobs before as an excuse to seize power.

Third, coup rumours are floated as a bluff to lovers of democracy attending the protests.

And fourth, military analysts say most of Thaksin's classmates from the Pre-Cadet Academy's Class 10 have stuck with him and are ready to fight, if necessary, against their seniors from Class 6, who are now at the top of the three armed forces.

The Class 10 members are currently in command positions in many units stationed in or near the capital, including General Pornchai Kranlert, assistant to the army chief; Lt-General Anuphong Paojinda, First Army Region; Maj-General Pruen Suwannathat, commander of the 1st Royal Guard Division; Maj-General Sanit Prommas, commander of 2nd Cavalry Division; and Maj-General Ruangsak Thongdee, commander of the Anti-Aircraft Division. In the Navy, Thaksin's classmate is Vice Admiral Srivichai Sirisali, chief of the Marines.

General Pornchai, for one, has denied his Class 10 colleagues have any conflict with Class 6 members and says his group will not gather to support Thaksin.

An army major general who is a member of Class 10 said not all of the classmates from the Pre-Cadet Academy are with Thaksin.

"We are not as close to Thaksin as many people think," the general told The Nation on condition of anonymity. "We were together for only two years at the Pre-Cadet Academy before Thaksin moved to the Police Cadets and we went to Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy."

Thaksin basically does not trust the military and he has mostly given priority to and relies upon his police classmates, the general said. Among Class 10 at the Pre-Cadet Academy, there is a split among those who hate or love Thaksin.

The fact that Thaksin makes frequent public appearances with the top military brass after huge anti-government rallies indicates that his relations with the military are not so warm and support for him from the armed forces is not strong. 

Political Desk

The Nation