Home

Web Blog

Shopping

NationEjobs

Web Directory

Back Issue








Tue, February 28, 2006 : Last updated 19:57 pm (Thai local time)



Lite version


Printable version


E-mail this article


Font size



Web


The Nation





Home > Headlines > Counter punch has floored the heavyweight





ANALYSIS
Counter punch has floored the heavyweight

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is down for an eight count. The opposition's decision to boycott the snap election, the first such political walkout in Thai history, has turned the tide and left him with just two options: Leave the ring while he can, or switch to suicide mode and continue the fight.

It was a somewhat below-the-belt blow by the opposition, but the growing crowd at Sanam Luang believed it was what he deserved. With the House dissolution, called by Thaksin last Friday, viewed as the latest in an endless series of "abuses" of democracy by the PM, the poll boycott was deemed a response in kind.

If the opposition parties, which have flip-flopped over the past two days regarding the boycott plan, manage to stand their ground, Thaksin's crisis will reach epic proportions. Since every MP is legally required to be elected by at least 20 per cent of voters in his or her constituency, there is a good chance the April 2 snap election will not produce 500 MPs, as required by the Constitution. Whether an "incomplete" House of Representatives can elect the next prime minister could become a big constitutional issue.

The Democrats' strong support in the South make it very likely that, if the ruling Thai Rak Thai Party decides to go ahead with the poll unchallenged, it won't get the much-needed 20 per cent backing for many of its candidates. The same might also happen in some Bangkok constituencies.

Even without such mammoth legal and constitutional dangers, Thaksin will still be in a bind. His current crisis stems from widespread fears of his domination, and winning a virtually uncontested general election would be the last thing he needs. But talk about "winning" might be premature, as many observers believe that if common sense still prevails, there is no way such an election could take place. While a boycott may be condemned by Thaksin's supporters, he lacks backing from the country's intellectuals who have all joined the alliance campaigning for his ouster.

"The opposition has turned the table on Thai Rak Thai, which now has only two options - confrontation or compromise," said Somchai Phakapaswiwat of Thammasat University. Confrontation means going ahead with the poll while trying to discredit those boycotting it at the same time. This carries major risks including violence that could have far-reaching consequences.

Compromise would mean Thaksin resigning, which could salvage something for Thai Rak Thai and its embattled leader. But according to Somchai, neither option bodes well for the Thai economy, as the PM's departure in a compromise scenario would also disrupt a lot of major policies and projects.

But other academics blamed Thaksin for the impasse. Pairoj Vongvipanond, a lecturer of Thurakitbundit University, said dissolving the House was a mistake. "It has been proven he is no longer fit to rule the country, so the planned snap election has not given hope - just fear that it will be used to whitewash [him] so he can again reclaim a mandate to govern Thailand," Pairoj said.

Teerana Bhongmakapat, a lecturer at Chulalongkorn University, could not foresee a one-horse election race. "A lack of election legitimacy would fuel public displeasure," he said.

Thai Rak Thai's desperate and intense lobbying efforts yesterday confirmed the ruling camp was aware that the boycott would deprive them of political and constitutional leverage. The impasse has already prompted political pundits to start talking about "divine intervention". Attention was drawn yesterday to Article 7 of the charter, which experts believe gives His Majesty the King power to resolve unprecedented deadlocks "through traditions of the constitutional monarchy."








Related Stories



Poll boycott corners PM

Reporter ejected from House

Troops on alert as protesters go on march

Help out or else, teachers warned

White flags flutter but there is no sign of retreat

Anti-Thaksin souvenirs selling rapidly at rally

Estimates of crowd numbers vary wildly

Khon Kaen 10-year-old is sure: Thaksin must go

Opposition merry-go-round ends in decision

Media businesses will be the general election's big winners

SET creeps higher for fifth straight trading da

Dissolution shrewd but ignores discontent

Poll boycott will polarise society

Politics should have little effect on GDP


Most Popular Headlines Stories


From Royal Plaza to Sanam Luang

From Sanam Luang Day 2

Thaksin announces House dissolution

TRT figures urge Thaksin to step down

From Sanam Luang Day 3


Home
I
Web Blog
I
Shopping
I
NationEjobs
I
Job Search
I
Web Directory
I
Back Issue


E-mail Us

I


Feed Back

I


Terms & Conditions

I


Advertisments

Privacy Policy © 2006 Nation Multimedia Group
44 Moo 10 Bang Na-Trat KM 4.5, Bang Na district, Bangkok 10260 Thailand
Tel 66-2-325-5555, 66-2-317-0420 and 66-2-316-5900 Fax 66-2-751-4446
Contact us: Nation Internet
File attachment not accepted!