Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's announcement of a House dissolution drew heavy fire from political scientists and analysts, who described it as "one-sided and unfair", "instigating hatred and socially divisiveness" and even an "ill-mannered distortion of the facts".

Thaksin's explanation blamed everybody but himself for the escalating political confrontation that led to the dissolution, law lecturer Somchai Preechasilpakul of Chiang Mai University pointed out.

"The statement is ill-mannered because it is one-sided and a distortion of the facts," Somchai said. "Thaksin passes all the blame on to other people. He fails to accept that the conflict is all about his leadership. He did not address any question the country has raised as to his legitimacy."

The PM's Office statement announcing the move speculated that dissatisfaction with Thaksin's leadership on the part of "some dissenting parties" and their planned mass rally today would lead to "violent confrontation between opponents and supporters of the premier". It also accused the protesters as well as some senators and members of Parliament of not playing by democratic rules.

The statement not only reflected his usual arrogance but sent a divisive message of hatred to the nation, said political scientist Surat Horachaikul of Chulalongkorn University, setting his opponents and supporters at each others' throats.

"House dissolution is just another time-buying tactic by Thaksin, but [by it] he is sowing hatred and division among the people," he said.

Thaksin's assertion on Friday that he "can't stand it when mob rule tries to override the law" reflected his shallow understanding of democracy, Somchai added. Peaceful rallies of citizens to demonstrate their frustration are a prominent element of democracy, he said.

"For Thaksin democracy is simply elections," Somchai said. "If he really believes this is mob rule, why is he running away from it [by dissolving the House]? Why won't he stay and fight it? The fact that he's shying away means he accepts that the people's protests are legitimate. Now he wants to whitewash himself with another election."

Dr Puangthong Pawakapan of Chulalongkorn University's Political Science Faculty agreed the statement was "unfair" because it contained not a single word of honest explanation at to why tens of thousands of people were attending public rallies against the government in the first place.

The political scientists added that if there were indeed riots or clashes during the public protest against the government, Thaksin would be half to blame because it would be his people mobilising government supporters to challenge its opponents.

Puangthong agreed with Somchai that the coming election was Thaksin's attempt to whitewash himself in the face of public accusations.

"The rallies and all the probes have tainted the credibility of the '19 million' [the number of people who voted for him last year]," Puangthong said. "Now Thaksin calls for a snap election because he needs a new number."

Many analysts say the election will see Thaksin returned to power, but even if he returns with 50 million votes, those votes will not answer all the doubts about him, said Surat of Chulalongkorn.

"Those votes would not be an amnesty for him. He needs to stay away from politics and face investigation," he said.

Election watchdog Poll Watch Foundation for Democracy yesterday warned that Thailand might see the "greatest" vote-buying in its recent history because of the government's desperation to return to power.

Historian Thammrongsak Petchlertanan noted a precedent in Thai political history for an illegitimate leader seeking legitimacy by the ballot box and ending up facing political turmoil in office because of public mistrust.

He cited Field Marshal Pibulsongkram's 1957 "dirty election" to legitimise his rise to the premiership by military coup.

"Field Marshal Pibul won his dubious election only to face several rounds of protest by students and mounting political crises. Sanam Luang was their protest ground too. He was ousted six months later by a military coup led by his subordinate Field Marshal Sarit Thanarat."

Nantiya Tangwisutijit

The Nation