"Inventors can distinguist between the economy and politics.[people] are fighting over pure politics, not economic issuese." Pridiyathorn Devakula Governor, Bank of Thailand.

MR Pridiyathorn Devakula, governor of the Bank of Thailand (BOT), said yesterday that the current political tension would not affect the economic outlook even if the House were to be dissolved.

He said that the political situation would not lead to changes in economic policies or strategies and that the country’s economic fundamentals were still strong.

The current political uncertainty, he said, started in April with the controversy over the purchase of the CTX security system for Suvarnabhumi Airport; yet it appears that the economy is still expanding with confidence in economic fundamentals.

“[Investors] can distinguish between the economy and politics. [People] are fighting over pure politics, not economic issues,” the governor said.

He added that growth had not slowed as much as many had predicted and said the country would see growth this year of 4.75-5.75 per cent, with private-investment growth of 10-11 per cent.

Pridiyathorn predicted that there would not be much investment in the government’s mega-projects this year and that the central bank would monitor inflation closely, particularly after the rise in the cost of electricity.

The governor estimated that headline inflation rate would be 3.5-5 per cent this year.

Several academics said public political activity, including the recent series of rallies, was now the only way of bringing checks and balances to bear on the government, but they too did not believe that current political tension would affect economic conditions.

Ammar Siamwalla, honorary adviser to the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), yesterday said the recent political movement against the government by the public reflected progress in the development of Thai democracy under the Constitution. To Ammar, the political debate on several stages, in Parliament, the courts and among the public, is becoming more various and intellectual.

“Now there is a court that is larger than the court. We have yet to see whether the public will be able to bring their voices and demands for fairness in society to bear,” he said.

Ammar declined to comment on the Constitution Court’s decision to reject the petition from 27 senators for the impeachment of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

He agreed with Pridiyathorn that the current political tension would not affect economic policy.

He also said that Thaksin focused more on economic problems than most of his predecessors.

Somkiat Tangkitwanich, an academic at TDRI, which is the government’s main think tank, said the Constitution Court’s decision to reject the senators’ petition had eliminated a key check on the government an a public political movement was now the only way forward, Somkiat said, including more rallies and the gathering of 50,000 signatures for impeachment.

“Politics in Parliament has shut down. The official check-and-balance mechanisms have shut down. The media, especially radio and television, have been interfered with. This is like boiling water in a sealed pot,” Somkiat said.

He said that if he were Thaksin he would dissolve Parliament to release pressure, a move that would allow him to come back as premier.

“If he does not choose this way, he won’t have any choice left,” he said. “It won’t do any good to prolong the situation and dissolve the House later: that would be more dangerous.”

Somkiat said he supported political activities by students as an alternative to politics in Parliament. He said they should be peaceful, cautioning that it was difficult to guess the outcome of any public political movement.

“People’s feelings are different,” he said. “If they gather without planning, it can be quite frightful. Anything can happen.”

Anoma Srisukkasem

The Nation