PEOPLE QUEUE up to sign thier names for a campaign at the Thammasat University to collect at least at least 50,000 signatures, in a bid to have Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra impeached.

Analysts at Phatra Securities and Merrill Lynch agree that while the government is facing a myriad of problems and mounting pressure from many sectors in society, it is too early to conclude that its days are numbered.

The following are edited excerpts from their analysis headlined: “Thai Politics Continues to Simmer But Not Boil”.

“The ruling Thai Rak Thai Party’s voter base in the rural areas remains strong and public opinion polls suggest that Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra continues to be popular.

“University students, a key

force for political change in the past, remain split on how to oppose the premier.

“Thaksin is moving tentatively toward constitutional amendment but he still needs to convince the public that political reforms can take place with him in power. However, opponents argue that Thaksin’s removal is a pre-condition for the commencement of genuine reforms.

“It seems the government feels it can cope with the frequent public rallies staged by anti-government groups, with the next one planned for February 26. The fact that Thaksin played golf with key military and police commanders on Monday was a sign in that direction.

“Economic policies relating to liberalisation and privatisation are falling victim to ongoing political tensions. Thailand’s ongoing Free Trade Agreement negotiations with the United States appear to be a possible first casualty.”

The analysts, however, have identified four risk factors for the ruling party, as follows.

1. Results of the Senate election in April are critically important to the government. If the new Upper House is anti-TRT, this could be a damaging setback.

2. If the Constitution Court accepts the case against Thaksin filed by 27 senators on Tuesday, this would hold the risk of a future decision by the court to disqualify the premier from politics for five years.

3. If a campaign by Thammasat University students manages to collect at least 50,000 signatures to initiate an impeachment procedure against the PM, he will be in trouble. The Senate will make the final impeachment ruling.

4. The last risk factor is that students manage to agree on a common strategy to pressure Thaksin.

The analysis says that to ensure its political survival, the ruling party is likely to focus on the upcoming Senate election.

“This is because apart from its oversight functions, the Senate makes critical appointments for independent agencies. It is therefore, no accident that Thaksin said he would reshuffle the Cabinet after the Senate elections.

“Thaksin appears to be signalling to his party’s various factions that their ability to support TRT-aligned candidates’ successful election into the Senate would have an important bearing on his Cabinet reshuffle decisions”.

The commentary concludes that the ruling party would consider the Senate election highly important. It is because the election of known pro-TRT candidates would support its argument that it remains popular; a friendly Senate could ensure safety against impeachment procedures; and a friendly Senate would make constitutional amendment more palatable to the TRT.

Your comments are welcome. Contact the Political Desk at poldesk@nationgroup.com.

Political Desk

The Nation