Published on January 26, 2006

It’s not often that Canada makes international news, so it’s a sign of how contentious politics has become in the country that Monday’s federal election was watched so closely around the world. But while the Canadian media may have referred to the election as “Decision 2006”, the results were far from decisive.

Nor were the results “sweeping” as had been reported by some international media organisations. The win for Stephen Harper’s right-wing Conservative Party has ended more than 12 years of Liberal Party rule, and for that reason it was a milestone. Not bad for a party formed little more than two years ago out of the amalgamation of two combative, unsuccessful rightist parties.

But the Conservatives will form Canada’s second minority government in less than two years, with all the accompanying uncertainty that implies. The Conservatives took only 124 out of 308 seats, with 103 going to the Liberals, 51 to the Bloc Quebecois, 29 to the New Democratic Party, and 1 to an independent. This hardly reflects a ringing endorsement by most standards. The Liberals, after suffering through years of scandal, could have been absolutely crushed – but they weren’t. Even more telling, the socialist NDP actually gained seats. The Liberal Party’s loss may say more about the electorate’s disgust with the cronyism of the government than any desire to see the country ideologically swing the way the Conservative Party wants.

Prime Minister-elect Harper has said that the country “voted for change”. Some commentators have even pointed to the result as proof of a “turn to the right” in the Canadian electorate that has been witnessed elsewhere in the Western world recently. But is it, really?

One of the most often used words to describe Canada – besides “cold”, of course – is “moderate”. The Canada of today is a far different than the country that existed the last time a conservative party held power. Values have noticeably shifted in the last decade, and the government has adjusted accordingly.

Most of these – the legalisation of gay marriage, refusal to participate in the invasion and occupation of Iraq, adherence to the Kyoto accord – are popular policies the Conservatives and Harper are known to oppose. But reversing these changes was not something they openly campaigned on. Controversial statements about abortion and gay marriage made by Harper and others during the 2004 election were noticeably absent this time round.

Seeking to deflect accusations of “extremism”, Harper actively cultivated a centrist position that focused on highlighting Liberal financial scandals, promising fiscal restraint, reducing the hated Goods and Services Tax, and offering childcare assistance payments. A message that proved popular enough with Canadian voters.

But the new Canadian government shares many common values with the Bush Administration, particularly in terms of free-market economics and social conservatism. Whether a majority Conservative government would have rolled-back these changes and moved closer to the United States position in foreign policy is now a moot point.

Compromise will be the order of the day, which will mean tempering their ideal policies to ensure the Bloc Quebecois and NDP don’t unite with the Liberals to bring the house down. They cannot afford to kid themselves that they have a rock solid mandate.

This will mean the Conservatives will be forced to work with people who don’t like them very much. The Liberals can be expected to resist whatever the victors do, for obvious reasons. The NDP, ideologically opposed to pretty much everything the Conservatives stand for, will likely block any attempt at a rightist turn. The Bloc Quebecois, a separatist party representing French-speaking Canadians, can also be expected to drive a hard bargain for their support.

So it is not difficult to see how trouble will soon develop. The Conservatives will have to walk a fine line between what they want to do and what they can realistically accomplish. A united opposition could topple the new minority government almost immediately. That they won’t is in recognition that the country is exhausted from two elections in as many years, neither of which have produced a definitive result. But don’t be surprised if you hear about another Canadian election in the not-to-distant future.

Canadian Chris Vedelago is a recent journalism graduate from the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology and an intern at The Nation.

Chris Vedelago

The Nation

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