Published on December 31, 2005

Few people would have believed that less than a year after the Thai Rak Thai Party won the February 6 election by a landslide Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra would be on the brink of a downfall. From the continuing violence in the deep South to the scandal over the CTX explosives-scanners and the phenomenon of anti-government maverick Sondhi Limthongkul, each new development seemed to throw Thaksin further off-balance as his popularity kept plunging.

The Nation’s Political Desk looks into what has gone wrong for the prime minister and his government since February’s massive election victory.

February 6

The Thai Rak Thai Party wins the general election in a landslide. It forms the first one-party government in the history of Thailand’s democratic history.

Thaksin Shinawatra keeps the prime ministership for a second term as his party sweeps 377 of the 500 House seats.

Although the Thai Rak Thai won only one of 54 constituencies in the South, the Democrats’ stronghold, Thaksin touts the overall victory as giving the party legitimacy to rule with the support of 19 million out of the total 33 million voters.

Critics warn that with such overwhelming power in his second term, Thaksin will get tougher on suppressing the media and the opposition.

February 16

Thaksin takes the fight to southern insurgents with the introduction of a drastic political measure, the first of its kind since the anti-communist struggle of the 1970s and ’80s, denying funds to villages whose administrations are believed to be sympathetic to militants.

Villages and areas deemed to be in this category are labelled “red zones”.

Out of 1,580 villages in the three southernmost provinces, 358, including 200 in Narathiwat alone, are classified as red zones.

The plan evokes strong opposition from community leaders and political activists. They say Thaksin’s action will leave “unwanted” citizens in poverty and thus force them to adopt a negative attitude towards the state, as they will feel they are being treated unfairly.

April 25

Krungthep Turakij Thai-language newspaper reports that there could be irregularities in the procurement of CTX explosives-detection machines for the in-line baggage screening system at Suvarnabhumi Airport, which is under construction.

The creator of the CTX system, InVision Technologies Inc, admitted to the US Department of Justice and the US Securities and Exchange Commission in December 2004 that there was a high probability that its agents had paid officials or political parties in Thailand, China and the Philippines for sales of its bomb-detection machines.

Thaksin denies that government officials or ministers are involved in the scandal. But in late June the opposition parties launch a censure debate against Transport Minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit.

They allege that the entire Cabinet appeared to be involved in a conspiracy to purchase the bomb scanners, costing taxpayers several hundred million baht.

September 10

The auditor-general controversy turns up a notch after the nomination of Visut Montriwat as auditor-general, replacing Khunying Jaruvan Maintaka, does not receive Royal endorsement even after 90 days – the period within which HM the King normally approves bills or decrees.

The delay signals that HM the King still supports Jaruvan, whose appointment he endorsed in late 2001.

The government is the main target of criticism, for allegedly interfering in the new selection process through a group of pro-government senators. It is also accused of insulting royal power as Jaruvan should have been terminated by a royal order.

September 12

Thaksin is alleged to be behind his ally Paiboon Damrongchaitham, chairman of GMM Grammy Group, in the entertainment giant’s Bt2.67-billion takeover bids for Post Publishing Plc and Matichon Plc, two of the country’s prominent publishing houses.

Media and civic groups oppose Grammy’s move, saying it is an act of terminating and intimidating media critical of the government.

Although Paiboon defends the bids as just business expansion, his close ties with Thaksin ever since the aborted plan to buy Liverpool Football Club invariably leads to the allegation of conspiracy to “swallow” critical media houses one by one.

September 21

The killing of two marines in Narathiwat’s Ban Tanyonglimo by insurgents revives hardline sentiment among Thai Buddhists around the country. They turn to back the government’s “an-eye-for-an-eye” policy against the “trouble-makers” in the violence-plagued districts of the deep South.

The marines were beaten to death during a dramatic hostage drama. Tanyonglimo villagers took the marines hostage on the night of September 20 night as they suspected them of being the gunmen who killed two people and injured four at the village teashop earlier in the day.

Security forces mount door-to-door searches in the area, interviewing villagers for clues that will lead to the killers being arrested.

November 3

Shortly after Thai Rak Thai candidates lose in two of three by-elections, Thaksin shows his fury by affirming his intention to give priority to constituencies held by his party when it comes to budgetary allocations.

He says that, as the prime minister, he has to take care of people throughout the country. But since he has limited time, he will pay attention first to provinces that give put their trust in his party.

Thaksin’s message disappoints many people, including loyal Thai Rak Thai supporters, and leads to accusations of unfairness.

November 11

Anti-government critic Sondhi Limthongkul accuses Thaksin of insulting royal power as the premier, a commoner, flouted venerable convention by presiding over a ceremony at Thailand’s holiest temple, a prerogative traditionally reserved for members of the Royal Family.

Thaksin oversaw a merit-making ceremony at the Temple of the Emerald Buddha (Wat Phra Kaew) on April 10, held to seek blessings for the country after a series of national calamities.

Although the PM’s Office issues a statement denying the charge, so many people believe Sondhi rather than the prime minister that deputy PM Wissanu Krua-ngam launches a special TV programme to clarify the process of the royal ceremony and rebut the allegation.

December 6

Thaksin drops all six defamation lawsuits against media tycoon Sondhi Limthongkul, involving issues of royal power and seeking some Bt2 billion in damages. The move follows His Majesty the King’s annual birthday speech on December 4, asking the government to drop lawsuits against critics who referred to His Majesty’s royal status.

The media and civic groups praise Thaksin for backing down, saying the premier did the right thing to leave His Majesty out of political disputes.

December 21

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is criticised for apparently putting into practice his angry threat after the Thai Rak Thai Party lost the by-elections in October.

Even after two weeks of devastating floods and landslides in the South, affecting more than 700,000 people in eight provinces, Thaksin says he is still trying to find the time to visit the affected region.

His tells the press this while visiting the northern province of Sukhothai-hometown of Labour Minister Somsak Thepsuthin, a leader of the Thai Rak Thai’s Wang Nam Yom faction.

December 25

Thaksin holds a special meeting with about 10,000 taxi drivers, lured by the chance to win free cars and houses, in an apparent attempt to win their hearts and help shore up his declining popularity.

Thaksin is apparently returning to the “giveaway” policies for low-income voters that helped his party defeat their bitter rivals the Democrats in 2001.

Facing a crisis of faith, it’s crucial for Thaksin that things start working in his favour. The coming year will be critical for his survival.

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