Published on November 30, 2005

I can say without hesitation that Senior General Than Shwe is mentally unstable and that the current state of the Burmese regime reflects the disorder in his vicious and increasingly paranoid mind.

Observers in Rangoon have noted that the regime’s decision to relocate its administrative offices to a remote region of central Burma is a sign the military government has become even more introspective and – as the cautiously optimistic among them add – unsustainable.

The move was not decided by exhaustive cabinet-level debate and informed research. There was no attempt to sound out public opinion on the matter or reach a consensus among government officials and civil servants. This rash and inadvisable course proceeded from the cracked mind of one man: Than Shwe.

In consultation with his astrologers, Burma’s generalissimo initiated the move because of predictions that Rangoon could see bloodshed and even the fall of the regime by next month or January. Even though construction of government offices and other infrastructure projects was not yet complete, ministry officials had to pack their things into a convoy of trucks and beat a path out of the capital. The subsequent confusion and anger among the country’s civil servants should have been anticipated.

Increasingly, the rumour “Than Shwe is mad” is spreading among cowed residents and senior government officials. His unaccountable behaviour has created so much chaos and desperation among officials that some even have health problems. Home Affairs Minister Maung Oo recently suffered a heart attack and was flown to Singapore for treatment. Others in government and the military believe that Burma is careening towards disaster, and there is little anyone can do about it. Than Shwe’s renowned paranoia has prompted him to insulate himself with a group of ultra-loyalists. But a despot is never untouchable. Reports suggest that Deputy Senior General Maung Aye, the junta’s No 2, objected to the Pyinmana move and may be looking to regional commanders for support against his boss.

Perhaps a regime change is in the offing.

But Maung Aye’s hands are tied at the moment. He can make no move against Than Shwe without the blessing of all the regime’s senior leaders.

Burma seems to have few alternatives now, and Rangoon’s fabled road map to democracy seems all but dead – if it ever lived at all. The regime expects to resume its National Convention to draw up a constitution in the coming months. If completed, a national referendum and elections would follow. Reliable sources in the capital, however, say that Than Shwe recently held meetings with senior advisers to determine whether he had any chance of winning an election. Advised that such a chance would be slim, his reported response was: “Forget about elections.”

If these reports are true, the likelihood of the National Convention accomplishing its intended purpose is slight.

Burma has languished under Than Shwe’s degenerate and ruthless dictatorship for more than a decade. The country’s committed and courageous opposition cannot –through passive resistance or complete inaction – allow him to extend his rule. Global political issues aside, it is their very future that is at stake.

It should be remembered that outside forces – opposition groups and the international community at large – can provide more effective support if there is movement inside Burma. Without such movement, there is little hope for real change.

There have been encouraging signs recently from the international community of a greater willingness to back reforms. Asean has expressed deep frustration with the junta’s slow pace towards progress. The regional bloc still clings to its failed policy of constructive engagement, but some of its members have become more vocal in their criticism of Rangoon.

The junta’s decision to forego its chairmanship of Asean next year is thought to have been the result of intense pressure by fellow member states. Political and economic conditions in Burma have regressed since then, and student leaders and residents show increasing frustration with the government as rising prices and inflation take a significant toll on the quality of life in Burma. Additionally, this past May’s deadly bomb attacks in Rangoon have led many to believe that the regime has little or no capacity to protect its citizens.

Outside the region, the US has taken a leading role in pushing for democratic reform in Burma and fighting to table the issue at the UN Security Council. While critics say that China and Russia stand between the US and a council resolution on Burma, others must ask why any nation would oppose the council’s move on a country that was described recently by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as one of the most oppressive regimes in the world. One might also ask whether China or any other country could maintain such a stance in the face of new uprisings in the country and fresh atrocities by a twisted cadre of power-hungry tormentors.

Burma now stands at a crossroads. The 1988 uprising took place largely out of sight of the international community. At that time, there were few international organisations or campaigns to support the millions of Burmese who took to the streets.

Today, many such organisations stand ready to lend support in any way possible if resistance groups and democratic forces take direct action to initiate change. Even officers and soldiers of the Tatmadaw (armed forces) could join the fray. Senior leaders and ex-ministers are thought to have quietly expressed the view that outside forces should do more to provoke change in Burma. But they must move quickly.

Some ethnic leaders had been marking time at the National Convention to see if diplomacy and compromise would end the political stalemate. It is not difficult to predict the consequences of such an approach. Ethnic groups would do much better to adopt a more proactive approach. The regime is weak and in shambles. As the world watches, Than Shwe’s house of cards could tumble at any moment.

Those in Burma who long for freedom must not wait for Aung San Suu Kyi to be released. They must make their own plans to set her free. Most Burmese do not want to be ruled any longer by Than Shwe, an incompetent megalomaniac clearly unfit to lead. The time has come to let him know.

Aung Zaw

Special to The Nation

Aung Zaw is based in Chiang Mai and is editor and founder of Irrawaddy magazine.

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