Published on October 25, 2005

As Aung San Suu Kyi marks her 10th year of detention, Thailand should support a more proactive approach. Aung San Suu Kyi must be a lady of steel to tolerate the combined 10 years of detention by the military junta in Rangoon. The junta hopes that she will simply languish in house arrest and everything will be fine, because nobody will remember her.

That is totally wrong. On her 60th birthday in June, leaders from around the world came out to support and praise her courage, and call for her release. But as usual, it fell on deaf ears in Rangoon.

Burma’s survival has been helped by China and India, two Asian powers which are being used by the military leaders. China has provided everything to the country, including defence procurements for the generals to keep their power strong.

Of late, the junta has indicated that Burma would like to follow China’s model of economic and political development. In the past, several political models were pondered, including those practised in India – and in Indonesia under the reign of former president Sukarto. But along with leadership changes in the past few months, the Chinese model has been accepted and considered the best one to follow. This will allow China to increase its already widespread influence inside Burma further.

Therefore, it is hard to see any changes occurring inside Burma, especially towards liberalisation. China itself has already said that it will not adopt liberal democracy as practised elsewhere and will continue with its own unique political system.

It will be interesting to see the extent of the Chinese-Burmese friendship in the future and watch how it envelops and affects Asean in the long run. After all, Burma has already withdrawn from the chairmanship for next year. None of the Asean members can say exactly when Burma will be able to resume the post.

With the ongoing dispute between Thailand and Malaysia over the fate of 131 Thai-Malay citizens remaining unsettled, Asean is not likely to increase its pressure on Burma in the near future. But certainly the Asean caucus dealing with Burma will continue its campaign on its own.

The group is currently facing a huge dilemma because member countries are not in harmony with each other. Never before in the history of Asean have the grouping’s core countries been so vicious in their dealings with each other. This sorry state of affairs could have far-reaching implications for Asean because it could divide the members states further.

As Asean ponders its future, it is an opportune time for the members of the UN Security Council to be more proactive in pushing for changes in Burma. They can reference the report commissioned by Vaclav Havel and Desmond Tutu, which has found that Burma does meet the criteria for UN Security Council intervention.

So far, many Western countries have backed calls for Burma to be taken to the Security Council. At the moment, Asean as a whole is still against such a move because it would further isolate Burma.

If the Security Council takes up the Burmese issue, it would be good for Asean. For one thing, it would remove pressure from the group, which at core wants to see positive change in the country. It would also benefit China, as it would demonstrate Beijing’s sincere stance that it will not oppose improvements to the political situation there.

Thailand has been very quiet on this issue because of its focus on the southern crisis, but it would be wise to support putting Burma on the Security Council’s agenda. Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra already has his hands full dealing with the situation in the South.

With Burma on the Security Council’s agenda, Thailand would be freer to shift its policy. Bilaterally, Thailand does not portray itself as anti-Burma, but the likelihood of support for this motion is now higher than ever.

As long as Suu Kyi is still under detention and world leaders stand unified behind her, it will be hard for the Burmese junta to ignore her. After all, the international community has failed to deliver on its promises to her for the last 17 years. Now only the council’s intervention will make a difference.

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