Published on October 12, 2005

Former prime minister Anand Panyarachun has already laid the groundwork for Thailand to discuss with Malaysia the security situation in southern Thailand.

His secret visit to Malaysia last week and the discussions he had with former prime minister Mahathir Mohammad and Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi showed Anand’s diplomatic clout and his understanding that delicacy is needed in order to find a solution in the South.

Anand, as the National Reconciliation Commission (NRC) chairman, has an important job to do in creating an atmosphere, both inside the country and beyond, conducive to ending the conflict.

Since the NRC was established in March, it has concentrated on improving domestic factors that would help promote the trust between southern communities and the government that can help lead to peaceful coexistence. In the provinces of Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat, building confidence and mending the ripped social fabric has always been the top priority.

However, for the rest of the country, creating better awareness and understanding of multiculturalism and tolerance has been the main obsession.

The NRC’s efforts have been hampered by Thaksin’s relentless pursuit of populist measures, including the use of military force.

The enactment of the emergency-powers law in July has made it even less likely that any peaceful transformation or resolution can be realised. The number of casualties has increased and the security condition on the ground has become more dangerous – contrary to the government’s claims of triumph and dividends.

And now, in light of the worsening situation triggered by the flight last month of 131 Thai Muslims from Narathiwat into Kelantan, and the squabbling that has since endured, it has become clear that the conflict has taken a life of its own and is now creeping into regional politics.

In this case, Malaysia has become the main target of attribution and henceforth a major adversary for the Thai government.

The southern conflict is no longer a domestic one. Both Thailand and Malaysia know this harsh reality very well.

So far, Thaksin’s handling of the fleeing Thais has been nothing but childish and condescending as he continues to pursue a populist agenda with the majority Thais.

His verbal abuse of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees and Malaysia is a case in point. Taking its cue from Thaksin, the Foreign Ministry repeatedly hit back at Malaysia for questioning the Kingdom’s once-stellar human-rights records.

Much diplomatic mudslinging has further complicated the situation in the South, and has left no room for dialogue at the top echelon.

It would be wise for Thaksin, who is currently on a weeklong trip in Europe, to pick up where Anand left off. A small window of opportunity was left open following the meeting in Singapore between former Thai foreign minister Surin Pitsuwan and Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar. Both called for a summit to discuss the issue.

Somehow Thaksin has not gotten the message. He still has a very partisan mindset and remains defiant.

He has brushed off Malaysia’s overtures for bilateral talks by demanding Kuala Lumpur first repatriate one of the 131 Thais as a sincere show of cooperation. The Thai authorities believed that the requested person was involved in the raid on a governmental armoury on January 4 last year.

As long as the fate of 131 Thais remains unresolved, the international community will be further drawn into this controversy. More than Thai authorities dare to admit, Malaysia has now become one of the most important players that can either pull Thailand out of this quagmire or deepen the crisis.

Without Kuala Lumpur’s cooperation and goodwill, this issue can further unravel and polarise the region.

In less than eight weeks, Malaysia is hosting two important events – the Asean summit and the East Asian Summit. To succeed, the country needs the participation of all Asean members. If Thai-Malaysian relations have not improved by then, the likelihood of positive outcomes at the summits could be seriously diminished. Thaksin’s infamous temper and lack of diplomatic etiquette could lead him to boycott the events, to signal his disappointment with Malaysia.

If this unfortunate scenario occurs, and becomes one more debacle to have taken place under Thaksin, it could easily drag other Asean countries into the diplomatic fray. Other Muslim countries in Asean have been very cautious in staying away from the issue.

Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim country, will be placed in a delicate situation if the southern crisis is further polarised. Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has already twice postponed a visit to Thailand, citing domestic problems and scheduling conflicts.

Thaksin’s regional leadership legacy, if there is to be anything left of it to ponder, will now completely rest on how his actions are understood and appreciated by Muslims in Asean, since they make up more than half of the grouping’s total population. It is not too late for Thaksin to accept humility and hold talks with Abdullah, even if the initiative does not come from him or his own party.

Thailand should reciprocate on assurances given by the top Malaysian leaders that Malaysia has no ambitions in southern Thailand and wants to see peace prevail there.

With Malaysia’s full cooperation, the government and the NCR can continue to concentrate on removing internal exigencies and resolve the remaining problems.

Kavi Chongkittavorn

The Nation

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