Published on May 05, 2005

Deck for editorial: two lines minimum, three lines max

British voters go to the polls today to decide whether to re-elect Prime Minister Tony Blair and his governing Labour Party. If they do, Blair will become the first Labour prime minister to be returned for a third consecutive term. The most recent opinion polls give Labour a lead over their traditional rivals, the Conservatives, of more than 10 percentage points. A little further back are the left-leaning Liberal Democrats. But with as many as one-third of voters still uncommitted and the possibility of a low turnout skewing the results in marginal electorates, there is still a slim chance that the Tories could pull off a surprise.

This marks a big change from 1997 and 2001 when Labour won triple-digit majorities in parliament on the back of a promise of revolutionising Britain’s long-polarised political system. Like his friend Bill Clinton, Blair brought his party, with its roots in the working class movements of the 19th century, into the centrist mainstream.

It wasn’t just the politics that appealed to voters. Blair was young, charismatic, articulate and seemed genuinely principled. In 2005, much of that “Blairphoria” has gone. Blair looks tired. The youthful looks and public admiration that first swept him to power eight years ago have faded. Where he was once the party’s key electoral asset, he now is perceived as almost a liability.

Poll after poll suggest Britons no longer trust him because of his decision to join the US-led invasion of Iraq amid charges of fabricated evidence and suspicions about his motives.

While accepting that the knocks on his credibility have taken their toll, Blair says he wants to continue to lead Britain; that he is still fired by issues such as education, healthcare, the climate and African poverty. But most signs suggest this will be Blair’s last election campaign as leader of the Labour Party.

The most likely result of today’s poll is that Blair will be re-elected, carried over the line on the broad back of his finance minister, Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, who has presided over eight years of economic growth and low unemployment and has taken much of the credit for the prosperity Britain now enjoys. The important thing in today’s election will be the margin of the probable victory because it will most likely determine how long Blair stays at the top. If it is large, Blair may be around for another three years. If it is narrow, he could be ousted by his own party, possibly as early as next year should he lose a planned 2006 referendum on the EU constitution.

Democracy is unkind to those who stick around too long. It eventually exposes those who claim to be inspired by principle and not power. Our modern political systems wear down or ostracise those who aren’t prepared to compromise. Modern government today demands pragmatism, not idealism, and Blair has shown himself to be no stranger to the darker arts of politics.

The other problem with being in power too long is the more traditional one – of being intoxicated by it. Blair’s circle of advisers has grown smaller and smaller over the years, to the point that many of his cabinet members were last year complaining that the most important decisions were being made without their participation.

Still, whatever problems Labour has had, they pale compared to those of their rivals, who lost their way after the Thatcher years.

The Conservatives still don’t seem to have decided how to deal with the way Labour has taken away their traditional positions. Labour has become the party that is tough on law and order, that sends troops abroad, that trumpets health-sector privatisation and fees for higher education.

The Conservatives’ pre-election campaign got off to a strong start as they targeted Labour on immigration and healthcare. But the immigration issue works better when the economy is weak and competition for jobs is intense, not when things are going well and cheap labour is needed to do the dirty jobs. The Tories’ main problem is still a marketing one; their offerings to the voters seem mostly indistinguishable from Labour’s.

Their strategy was to go back to the trust issue. That decision was probably misguided. The Tories themselves wanted to go to war in Iraq and so it is the Liberal Democrats who will most likely pick up disenchanted Labour supporters.

It is curious and yet encouraging that the issues of public faith and trust, which modern politics make so hard for politicians to maintain, also remain so important to voters.

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