Published on January 20, 2005

The US president has indicated the world can expect more of the same unyielding diplomacy in his second term

George Herbert Walker Bush will officially start his

second term as US president today after being sworn in at noon (midnight Bangkok time) on Capitol Hill. Fresh from a narrow election victory that he said had absolved him of accountability for the Iraq war and given him new political capital to spend on his conservative agenda, Bush will now go before America and the world to outline his goals for his upcoming term in his inauguration speech.

Given that his approval rating - in the high 40s - is the lowest for any re-elected president starting a new term in more than 50 years, that he is confronted with deep fiscal and trade deficits, a weak job market, the Iraq mess and mistrust abroad, many are hoping Bush Jr will use the speech to send a more conciliatory tone to the world.

But that is unlikely to happen. Bush promised to “show purpose without arrogance” in his first inaugural speech but found it didn’t play well with his core political supporters. As he noted during his re-election campaign last year, “What you call swaggering, we call walking in Texas.” And that’s the way he likes to be seen: as a straight-shooting rough-rider who deals with the world on his own terms.

After fumbling to find a cause during his first 18 months in office, the September 11 attacks in 2001 gave Bush a way to define his presidency - taking the fight to America’s enemies - and he looks unlikely to change that now.

There were certainly few hints of a dramatic shift in foreign-policy direction in the Senate confirmation hearing of Bush’s next secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice. “We must use American diplomacy to help create a balance of power in the world that favours freedom,” she said, listing favoured foes Cuba, Iran, North Korea and Burma among other nations described as “outposts of tyranny” that would again be the focus of US attention.

Bush likes to say his aggressive foreign policy has made the world a safer place. But there are many who believe otherwise. Iraq in particular seems to be serving as inspiration for angry young Muslims everywhere to turn to terrorism or at least sympathise with the acts of militants and zealots. According to a BBC poll released yesterday, a majority of people surveyed in a global poll think Bush’s re-election has made the world more dangerous.

But it is not just in the war on terror that America is losing friends. Bush’s positions on the Kyoto protocol on global warming and his opposition to the International Criminal Court have driven a wedge between him and European public opinion and there are no indications he will back down on those.

Rice did promise Washington would try a more “constructive” approach in dealing with its international partners, saying “the time for diplomacy is now”.

Yet in many ways Washington doesn’t have much choice but to be more yielding. It needs help from the international community to restore peace in Iraq, for the sake of its economy it needs to avoid creating too much friction with China over trade, and it needs help from Asia in dealing with North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.

In much the same way, Bush would be wise to try to strike a conciliatory tone in his inauguration speech to reach out to the Democrats and seek their cooperation on his domestic policies.

On the economy, taxes, social security, education and the labour markets, Bush’s presidency is an unfinished revolution and he can’t succeed if he continues to completely reject contrary opinion.

Open and unfettered debate and public participation are two of the strengths of the American political system. They are part of the reason the country’s democracy has been so enduring, dating back uninterrupted to 1789. Pluralism ensures everybody’s interests are considered.

The international system through the United Nations similarly tries to ensure the world doesn’t fall victim to the law of the jungle. Bush needs support to get things done. To continue in his uncompromising and unilateral way, either at home or on the global stage is simply too dangerous.

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